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Onalaska’s school budget will be the same story as it was last year and it will be the same story as it was the year before. The story, said Superintendent John Burnett, “is ‘we appreciate the referendum, we are maintaining programs as promised, but it won’t last and we must have a conversation with taxpayers about what will happen in 2010-11.’ ”

Burnett has sent the same message annually since voters allowed the district to exceed state revenue limits by $500,000 per year for five years. Prior to that, revenue limits grew much more slowly than expenses, forcing teacher layoffs and some cuts in educational programs.

Residents may address the school district’s 2008-09 budget during a public hearing starting at 6:30 p.m. Monday, Aug. 25, in the high school board room.

It will cost about $35.5 million to operate Onalaska schools through the coming school year. The local tax levy is expected to be about $12.6 million, a 6 percent increase over last year. The tax rate will drop a tiny amount, to $7.63 from last year’s $7.64 per $1,000 of equalized valuation.

The word “about” looms over the budget as it does every year at this time. School officials are missing three big factors that can yank their numbers up or down. The official tax base is not known, the student population is not known and the amount of state aid is not known.

Larry Dalton, the district’s finance director, tries to conservatively estimate what each of the big three will be so the district can plan financially for the year.

The number of students who show up for classes might be about the same. “We seem to be a stable enrollment district,” Dalton said. With the state funding formula, changes are averaged over three years.

State aid is somewhat predictable, too. “It is in our favor we are in the middle of the state biennium so the total amount of state money available for schools is fairly well known,” Dalton said. Each district’s slice of the pie will be determined based upon their 2007-08 audit.

It is the third factor, the local tax base, that could be an issue for the budget. Dalton guessed there would be a 6 percent increase in the local tax base even though growth has been about 9 percent for a number of years. He wanted to be extra conservative but now he is not sure he was conservative enough.

Dalton does not have any hard data on the tax base, but when his own home was assessed recently the assessor told him the market was not going up as fast as it had. “Looking at the news statewide, residential property was up 3 percent and commercial and manufacturing property increased 4 percent last year,” Dalton said. That could mean the 6 percent growth prediction is a bit optimistic for Onalaska.

If the tax base is not as good as projected, if not as many students show up, and if state aid is lower than expected, the district still hopes to have a balanced budget and to maintain Onalaska’s educational programs.

The first thing to suffer will be defeasance, Dalton said. That is the process of paying off debts early, something the Onalaska schools have been trying to do to save some money and also be prepared to make a future referendum “window of opportunity.”

Another place officials will look to cut is in its $250,000 community service budget.

The last place Onalaska’s administrative team would look is at its educational programs. “We made a promise to voters at the referendum that we would maintain our educational programs, and we have done that,” Burnett said.

There have not been increases except where student numbers have demanded them. “It seems like we have to deal with these issues at about every meeting,” Dalton noted. That includes the Aug. 11 meeting where board members authorized another first-grade teaching position because of enrollment.

The other promise made at the referendum was that a “yes” vote would not increase the levy rate past the then-current rate of $7.78 per thousand. The referendum projection was $7.71 for 2005-06. Every year it has been less, and every year at near historic lows for the community.

“Our levy rate is significantly lower than the state average and below that of our neighboring school districts,” Dalton said.

The next step in Onalaska’s budget process is to finalize it in October when all the facts are known from student enrollment to the tax base to the amount of state aid. Then work begins on the 2009-10 budget.

Concluding the budget process also brings taxpayers closer to another big decision about their schools. “We have to put people on notice that we will have to come back to them for another referendum in 2010-11 if something is not done about Wisconsin’s levy limits,” Burnett said. That is just to continue with the current level of programs. In addition, requests for more international language instruction, updated technology, capital improvements and lower class sizes will need to be considered.